Yankees series preview: Can Royals pitchers contain Aaron Judge?

The Yankees visit Kauffman Stadium this week, giving the Royals a good test of their abilities and stirring feelings of animosity among the fanbase. The Yankees gave the Royals a good thumping in a sweep at Yankee Stadium back in April. The Royals will try to win a home series against the Yankees for just the second time since 2015.

New York Yankees (39-25) vs. Kansas City Royals (34-32) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Yankees: 5.45 runs scored/game (3rd in MLB), 3.97 runs allowed/game (11th)

Royals: 3.42 runs scored/game (27th), 3.56 runs allowed/game (5th)

The Yankees had a terrific May, but are coming off a disappointing 3-3 homestand where they gave up 21 runs in their last two games. They’re 18-13 on the road, the best mark in baseball, and they’re 24-16 against teams .500 or better, the second-best record in the game.

The Yankees have hit the most home runs in baseball and have the highest walk rate. They’re not just a product of their bandbox stadium either – their 130 wRC+ on the road is tops in baseball.

There are no more superlatives to describe how good Aaron Judge has been. Since the beginning of last year, he has hit .344/.468/.722 with 81 home runs in 222 games. Kauffman Stadium has neutralized him a bit – he’s a career .244/.289/.462 hitter there with five home runs in 19 games, and he was just 1-for-6 in the ALDS games at the K last fall. He is just 1-for-11 against Seth Lugo with five strikeouts, plus an 0-for-3 against him in the playoffs.

Ben Rice has the highest hard-hit rate on the road in baseball at 53 percent. Cody Bellinger has a reverse split and is hammering lefties with a line of .364/.406/.582. Paul Goldschmidt is just 7-for-43 (.163) over his last 11 games. He has been a road warrior though, hitting .391/.431/.570 away from Yankee Stadium. Anthony Volpe is hitting .283/.333/.543 with two home runs over his last 14 games.

Rookie Jasson Domínguez strikes out 30 percent of the time, the eighth-highest rate in baseball. He is hitting just .143/.258/.268 against lefties. Austin Wells has a 52 percent flyball rate, tenth-highest in baseball.

The Yankees are middle-of-the-road with 48 steals and a 76 percent success rate with Jazz Chisholm Jr., Dominguez, Bellinger, and Volpe all threats to run. They have made the fewest outs on the bases in all of baseball. The Yankees are average to above-average defensively with Belinger and Chisholm standing out with the glove, while Dominguez and Grisham are liabilities in the outfield.

Max Fried has been an outstanding free agent pickup for the Yankees and is currently third in the AL in ERA, sixth in fWAR, with the 12th-lowest walk rate. He gave up six rruns to the Dodgers back on May 30, but rebounded to toss six shutout innings in his last start, allowing just one hit against the Guardians. He gave up two runs in 6 ²⁄₃ innings against the Royals in a win back in April. Fried has a reverse split, with righties hitting just .199/.237/.262 against him. He has the third-highest groundball rate among qualified starters at 51 percent.

Clarke Schmidt has given up three runs or fewer in eight of his nine starts, but has yet to go more than six innings. He has been much worse on the road with a 4.79 ERA and .803 OPS for his opponents. Kyle Isbel is 2-for-5 with a double and triple against him in the regular season, and he was 1-for-1 with a double against him in last fall’s playoffs. He relies heavily on a cutter, but also throws a curve, sinker, slider, and a wsweeper that opponents are hitting .114 against with a 37.5 percent whiff rate.

Rookie Will Warren has struggled over his last three starts, allowing 13 runs and 10 walks in 10 ²⁄₃ innings. Righties are hitting just .207/.278/.310 against him. He has been awful away from Yankee Stadium with a 6.54 ERA in eight starts this year. He’s a high-strikeout pitcher with a terrific fastball that opponents are hitting just .148 against, but his sweeper has been hit hard with a .340 opponent’s batting average.

The Yankees bullpen has had its ups and downs and has a 3.83 ERA overall. They’re without closer Luke Weaver, who is out with a hamstring injury. Devin Williams initially had the closer’s role, but had some early struggles. He’s back in the closer role and has been better lately, allowing just three runs and striking out 17 in 12 innings over his last 13 outings. The Yankees have the third-fewest blown saves in baseball.

Fernando Cruz has a 40 percent strikeout rate, fourth-highest among relievers. Ian Hamilton’s 15.7 percent walk rate is sixth-highest in baseball. Tim Hill has a 66.3 percent groundball rate, fourth-highest in baseball. Mark Leiter Jr. has been much worse on the road, with opponents hitting .289/.333/.422 against him.

The Royals stood toe-to-toe with the Yankees in four close games in the ALDS last fall, but ultimately did not match their firepower. They will need their elite pitching staff and big ballpark to neutralize Yankees bats. The home debut of Jac Caglianone could be a factor – expect a large and raucous crowd to cheer on the rookie against the hated Bronx Bombers.