Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano: Odds, full fight preview and prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight veterans Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano will go to war this weekend (Sat., June 28, 2025) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC 317.

Despite an eight-fight win streak from Nov. 2018-Oct. 2022, Dariush never managed to secure a title shot. Charles Oliveira was supposed to be the final hurdle to an Islam Makhachev showdown, but a “Do Bronx” head kick shattered those dreams (re-live that here). A quick knockout loss at the hands of Arman Tsarukyan (woof) immediately afterward really dashed Dariush’s momentum, leaving him in No Man’s Land. Moicano, conversely, stumbled into a title fight his last time out! Makhachev ran him over, of course, but prior to that defeat, “Money” was riding a nice little four-fight win streak that re-established him as a Top 10 contender.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Dariush vs. Moicano Betting Odds

Beneil Dariush victory: +130
Beneil Dariush via TKO/KO/DQ: +350
Beneil Dariush via submission: +800
Beneil Dariush via decision: +275
Renato Moicano victory: -155
Renato Moicano via TKO/KO/DQ: +500
Renato Moicano via submission: +275
Renato Moicano via decision: +350
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Dariush Wins

Beneil Dariush is one of the best sprawl-and-brawl fighters in recent memory, which is the reason a certain section of fans really wanted to see him square off versus Makhachev. A jiu-jitsu ace who pairs his grappling with nasty leftie Muay Thai, Dariush is a well-rounded technician occasionally limited by his durability.

Fortunately, Moicano isn’t a huge hitter, and these two veterans are the same age. There should be a blinding speed or power advantage on either side. Both of these men are well-rounded too, so there’s no glaring advantage either. This fight is going to be about decision-making and tactics, not raw physical gifts or major weaknesses.

Looking for advantages on the Dariush side, I think he has the edge in power and offensive wrestling. We’ve seen Dariush ground some really talented Lightweight wrestlers, so it’s worth trying a bit here. I’d like to see the Southpaw on his front foot, showing the double threat of his left kick and left hand, then trying to time his shot under Moicano’s counter right when it inevitably comes back at him.

How Moicano Wins

Moicano really has plus skills everywhere. He’s a high-level jiu-jitsu black belt, as well as a quality offensive and defensive wrestler. Stand up is debatably the weakest part of his game, but the Brazilian has an excellent jab and quite nasty range kicks, so it’s far from a flaw overall.

For Moicano, his advantages would appear to be volume and durability. He may not be the more powerful man, but Moicano generally fairs better in scrappy fights. He’s held up to Lightweight power fairly well, showing great recovery when hurt, and his opponent has suffered consecutive knockout losses.

This might be the fight to pursue extended pocket exchanges. Dariush tends to strike in short bursts anyway, two-to-three shots at a time. If Moicano can jab his way inside, he should do his best to stand his ground and keep the exchange going with continued punches. He has to stay defensively responsible, but “Money” should definitely try to test that chin and push the gas tank.

Finally, Moicano did great work in countering Benoit Saint Denis’ left kick, and that’s a signature weapon of Dariush as well. Maybe come prepared with another good counter in mind?

Dariush vs. Moicano Prediction

I’m going to side with the (slight) underdog here.

The knocks against Dariush are that he lost violently to a pair of Top Five contenders and is 36 years old. Prior to those losses, however, he was beating a better level of competition than Moicano, who doesn’t appear to have the athleticism or aggression of a Oliveira or Tsarukyan. He just doesn’t have the tools to capitalize on Dariush’s apparent decline, in part because he’s the same age with roughly the same number of fights!

Given a comparable level of mileage, I believe Dariush to be the better Lightweight, and he doesn’t have to change up his fighting style here. Unless those knockouts truly ruined him — which there’s not yet evidence of — Dariush should still be favored.

Prediction: Dariush via decision

LIVE! Watch UFC 317 PPV On ESPN+ Here!

CHAMPIONSHIP DOUBLE-DIP! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) continues its 2025 pay-per-view (PPV) schedule on Sat., June 28, 2025, with a championship doubleheader headlining UFC 317 from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, as part of International Fight Week. In UFC 317’s PPV main event, former Featherweight champion, Ilia Topuria, challenges ex-Lightweight titleholder, Charles Oliveira, for Islam Makhachev’s vacated 155-pound title in a high-stakes, five-round showdown. UFC 317’s PPV co-main event features Flyweight kingpin, Alexandre Pantoja, defending his 125-pound belt against No. 4-seeded contender, Kai Kara-France, in an electrifying five-round rematch. UFC 317 will also showcase a Lightweight bout between Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano, as well as a short-notice Flyweight clash pitting Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van, and much more! UFC 317’s start time is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (“Early Prelims”), 8 p.m. ET (“Prelims” undercard), and 10 p.m. ET (PPV main card).

Don’t miss a single second of EPIC face-punching action!

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 317 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano: Odds, full fight preview and prediction | UFC 317